3D Printing and the “Third World”

Sorry I haven’t written for so long, but I’m in Kabul, Afghanistan currently assisting the NATO mission here and have been a little preoccupied. While this may seem like the last place on Earth one would think has any ties to 3D printing, I met an extremely forward thinking young Afghan here the other day who is doing just that.

I don’t have his permission to use his name or post his photo yet but I like the way this kid thinks. For now, I’ll call him Ohmed.

Now admittedly Ohmed is a part of what would be considered the urban elite of Afghan youth. Early 20s from a well connected family, he was educated in Germany before returning back here to his birthplace. It was there abroad he first encountered 3D printing and he not only fell in love with it, but he sees the potential it has to transform “Third World” economies.

“Countries like Afghanistan don’t have set standards or easy convenience. The daily parts and things many people need, especially in rural areas is often custom fabricated or taken from scrap materials. If 3D printing really became viable, it could transform and add real value to people’s lives,” he told me. “Imagine instead of hunting down a part for a well or a windmill, you could go to a centralized point and just get what you needed made? That could save real time and even lives.”

And the hunger for technology and all things new is palatable amongst Afghan youth. The vast majority, even the poorest, own a cell phone. Ironically, Afghanistan’s lack of previous infrastructure is becoming a bit of a boon as well. Since no old systems have to be drastically upgraded or replaced, many of the foreign aid projects here immediately can build based on what the 21st Century needs. Entrepreneurs and the government have recognized this fact and are laying down an extremely modern and affordable fiber optic system that could potentially rival and surpass even more modern countries.

This infrastructure, coupled with forward thinkers and foreign assistance could immediately jump start the 3rd World, into the 3D World.

The challenges are vast, but so is the potential. I’ll keep track of Ohmed and his hopes and post back here on his progress periodically. Right now he hopes to find a way to get an actual working 3D printer here in the country and start experimenting.

Steve Jobs once said that the trick isn’t to build a technology and then market it but to find what people want and value and then provide the technology that fulfills that. If 3D printing is to grow, it needs to add real value to a person’s life. In countries like Afghanistan, this value may become even more apparent and may hold the key to bringing this technology to everyone.

Winter thoughts on 3D printing: imagination thriller or killer?

As more snow falls now upon me here in the East Coast of the U.S., I’m watching a show called “Naked and Afraid”. For those unfamiliar with the show, as the name suggests, two survivalists are paired up and dumped in the middle of an unforgiving wilderness with the goal to survive for 21 days using their wits. In this case, that wilderness is the Peruvian Amazon jungle. As I watch these two skilled survivalists get about on the business of surviving my thoughts turn to 3D printing.

Additive manufacturing, like many of the technological advancements already ubiquitously at our disposal, has the potential to further “lazify” our thinking and dull our wits. A generation is growing right now that is forgetting to learn how to learn and use technology to augment their skills and wits, not to supplant them.

As I watch these particular two survivalists, they have already beat out another pair less skilled and capable. Hypothetically speaking of course, if this team had a 3D printer that worked even close to the magnificent imaginings of us all; I can only think they would use it in a way that would augment the base knowledge and will they already possessed.

Right now, the large majority of 3D print enthusiasts are Makers and artists. Two groups I argue were skilled and creative already; and know this tool is just that, another tool that augments their expression and visions but doesn’t supplant their creativity.

IF 3D printing is to reach a larger threshold of the population and make a meaningful impact it will have to become easier, and the underlying systems too will need to improve enough to become ubiquitously easy. But as that occurs, will we/they lose something along the way?

Perhaps the challenge isn’t just in making the technologies better but also making the people using them better as well. Instead of focusing on ‘how?’ to use this technology and incorporate it, maybe the focus should be on ‘why?’ one must this technology. With the answer to that question being, because it augments the visions in your head and makes them reality to make your life better. It takes YOUR imagination and ingenuity and is another medium but is not the source of inspiration.

For those of a certain age, remember the time before GPS? You had to learn how to get somewhere with landmarks, maybe a Thomas Guide. You knew, and could give, directions to a location. How awesome it has been to go anywhere with an address and a GPS, but see how lazy it has made the ability to learn to know our surroundings by experience? Will 3D printing one day have a similar effect on our abilities?

The two on the show tonite made it thru with skill, wit, imagination and ingenuity; using their harsh environment to conform to their will. Could we ensure 3D printers do that for us all? Or will a machine that can make anything we imagine, kill imagination along the way?

The biggest challenge to 3D printing? It’s promise to change every industry.

There have already been numerous articles written about the marvels and promise of what 3D printing can already do. We all can see the potential and the writing is on the wall.

Right now the challenges with 3D printing too are still very profound. It is still too cumbersome, too slow, expensive and out of reach for the average consumer or prosumer to really have an impact. For now anyway.

But the real challenge to 3D printing will actually lie in the fact that it will literally change everything and disrupt societal paradigms centuries in the making. Every industry from shipping and logistics, manufacturing, education, healthcare, consumer goods and more will be dramatically transformed or destroyed. The impacts this will have on balances of power and, more importantly, those who are in control of balances of power, is the real singular challenge to the rise of the industry.

Just as the alternative energy industry had been stymied by both market forces and direct lobbying against it by Big Oil or current rushes to wrangle in the internet itself thru prohibitive legislation; 3D printing will most likely be allowed to develop to a point but reigned in to an exclusive and esoteric technology.

Already trademark and copyright laws are being challenged by firms going after individuals who they believe in infringement. Patents and advancements can undergo special considerations and classification as protected technology in the name of national security. Governments already too are trying to prohibit what can not only be printed but what designs can be distributed and made.

As other industries start to see the threats 3D printing could pose to their operations; not only will there not be promotion into R&D but active blocking of activities that be beneficial.

Capitalism itself will be threatened. The nature of access to labor, economies of scale and scope, and new commodities will scare the hell out of those who are quite comfortable in the current equation.

To be fair, we of course do need to have these conversations and talk common sense and practical limitations. We need to develop ethical guidelines based on this technology and we need to continue to foster an environment that collaborates at an even pace.

But will we be allowed to do that? Or are the decisions already being made and will we be given false choices and illusions? Finally, do we deserve the conversation when many hobbyists and enthusiasts are so naive and cavalier to acknowledge the real harm that could occur and the need for responsible controls?

‘Minecraft’ a potential vision of 3D printing?

Been on hiatus the past few months and watched my kids play a lot of Minecraft. If you’re not familiar with the game then you have truly had your head under a rock the past few years but I’ll describe it in brief anyway. In the game, “Steve” essentially creates or survives in a computer generated world of his own making. Steve can fly but more importantly his greatest power is that he can pretty much create anything with the pretty much unlimited amount of materials he has at his access.

Now bear with me a great deal of hyperbole and suspension of disbelief; but if you think about it Steve and Minecraft is the ultimate end vision of the potential of 3D printing. The ability to make anything with a variety of materials, limited only by your imagination. This is the end state to aspire! And we’ve been training a generation already to totally accept this vision.

Okay?! We’re about 100 years from realizing such an effortless, physics defying and omnipotent vision for 3D printing. But begin with the end in mind as the old adage goes, and see the future! Hopefully, we can defeat any and all “creepers” in our way.

Introducing the Peachy $100 3D Printer!

Ran across an Indigogo campaign for a 3D printer called the Peachy Printer here: http://kck.st/15bSJD0. In and of itself this wouldn’t necessarily be anything too newsworthy. However, this one caught my imagination as it illustrates to me where I believe true innovation is going to come out. Namely some inspired Maker in a garage somewhere and not from the bigger names in the game like Stratasys or 3D Systems (although I still hold hope with Makerbot). To me, it appears the more marquee leaders in the industry are protecting their patents and methods more than innovating new user friendly concepts. This is where I feel Peachy is differentiating and has highlighted a different approach.

From their campaign, “The Peachy printer is a Photolithographic printer. That means it uses a controlled beam of light to cure light sensitive resin into hard objects. The peachy moves a laser beam along the X and Y axes to create the shape of the object, while using a drip system to control the level of the resin on the Z axis which determines the height of the object.” Nothing too earth shaking there, but wait, there’s more.

“The object you want to print must first become a 3D model in Blender. The software we wrote as an add on to Blender takes the data from that 3D model and translates it into an audio waveform. It then plays the audio file out to the printer through the headphone jack in your computer. This waveform drives a pair of electromagnetic mirrors. The higher the volume, the higher the voltage, the more the mirrors move. The purpose of these mirrors is to reflect and control the path of the laser beam. By using the audio waveform generated from the 3D model data to drive the mirrors, we are able to get the laser beam to draw out the shape of the object.”

Did you get that? They’re using AUDIO to send the signal from your soundcard and headphone input to the printer. They claim this cuts down on other components needed, making the Peachy cheaper overall to manufacture.

Again from their video, “now let’s talk about the drip system that creates movement on the Z axis. The salt water in the top container siphons down to a drip feed. The rate of this drip feed is controlled by a valve. As each drip leaves the feed, it passes through two contact points creating an electrical connection that is detected by your computers microphone jack. The drip continues to fall into the bottom container where it causes the resin floating atop it to rise. The software listens to the microphone level, counting each drip that falls and calculates the resultant level of the resin. This allows the software to send the layer that corresponds with the current Z-level of the resin. This process continues until the print is complete!” So again, the audio reads and calculates back to the printer the amount of resin used to complete the project.

Pretty cool, huh? And the video shows great promise. Admittedly by the campaign, print quality is still lacking; but their concept appears sound (no pun intended) and I love that they are approaching a key vulnerability (affordability) in the 3D printer market with a new approach. This to me bodes well of the growth of this industry. They’re scheduled for release next summer and I hope they succeed, even if only it may motivate other companies with larger resources and better organization to start thinking in new ways to push the technology forward and make it more accessible to everyone.

Top ten stories in 3D printing right now

Great website with useful stories and updating regularly. Highly recommend.

http://b3dge-log.com/3dpnews

A Tale of Two Kickstarters: Why marketing will matter for 3D printing initiatives

One of the challenges of any business/industry is identifying and communicating with market segments. With such a revolutionary technology like 3D printing this is even more important as markets haven’t even been fully established or yet reached a critical mass of understanding with general consumers to be easily ubiquitous to the uninitiated. To highlight this, I will examine two current Kickstarter campaigns of near similar concepts from a marketing perspective and why one has already reached its goals, while the other is still struggling. These two campaigns are both “all-in-one” products that scan, print/create and “fax” or will facilitate data communication between devices. One is the ZEUS All-In-One and its campaign can be found here: http://kck.st/1dMoOE0. The other is the Microfactory, Machine Shop in a Box and can be found here:
http://kck.st/152J107. To be fair upfront, I have not examined either product physically and do commend both campaigns for their courage to put themselves out there and attempt to innovate. Their efforts themselves highlight another vulnerability of the consumer 3D printing market in general that I will write about in another article.

In comparing the ZEUS Kickstarter with the Microfactory Kickstarter, the tale of the tape is that ZEUS raised $120K (out of $100K) in a matter of hours, whereas Microfactory raised $26K (out of $1M) on the first day, and has now appeared to stall. ZEUS still has 20 days to go and Microfactory 27 (as of Sept. 6, 2013). If you negate the fact that ZEUS’ goal was a mere $100K while Microfactory’s was $1m, ZEUS still raised over 4 times the amount of Microfactory in substantially less time. They’re both ‘all-in-one’ products, with similar delivery plans but in my opinion the reason ZEUS reached its goals so much faster lies a lot in good ole fashioned marketing and showmanship.

Show me the money! ZEUS has a lower price point up front for its more complete pledge ($2500 vs. $4500) this is of course highly important as it puts it on par as more established names like Makerbot and with more features. The higher Microfactory price already starts going into the low prosumer market and doesn’t show thru its video or pictures a higher quality end result. And on that point…

It’s a shallow world. ZEUS in general has a much better overall presentation of all its materials. The graphics and photos are top notch, easy to read and look professional. The video have an on-par production quality but the images portrayed thru the ZEUS video are so much more polished. All the founders or principals of the AIO Robotics Company that manage ZEUS all present a professional appearance while if you watch the Microfactory video, they’re all in T-shirts. I get that Microfactory is a gritty startup of passionate Makergeeks, so once was Steve Jobs and Wozniak; but even Jobs eventually put on a suit to sell Apple and get it off the ground. Yes, it still matters. If you want people to invest in your company, the first thing they will do is invest in you. You may still be a bunch of guys working out of a garage, but don’t look like a bunch of guys working out of a garage! And that brings me to the next point…

Are you talking to me? If the 3D printing market is to expand and grow, you got to convince people that this technology brings value into their lives. As the old saying goes, “sell the sizzle, not the steak!” Newsflash aspirants of 3D printing: YOU GOT THE GEEKS ALREADY! (disclaimer: I’m a geek too and say that term with nothing but affection). Microfactory shows me a bunch of hard-working Makers in an industrial setting using their product to do even more geeky stuff. These may be the people who very well be your market in the future, but Kickstarter broadcasts to all. You got to sell the vision and more importantly the reason why creating the vision has to happen. ZEUS shows me a fashion designer trying to make shoes. They show me a kid faxing his creation to dad (So easy to use, even a kid can do it). They show me that their product actually could be neat to have and make my life easier.

While all the Marketing 101 points I raised above helped to push the ZEUS campaign to meeting its goal, ZEUS really succeeded here because it pulls at the heart and the imagination. That’s the sizzle my friends. All the tech in the world won’t matter if you forget the human who has to use it. A piece of technology itself won’t change the world, but it can change how a person interacts with that world. That’s the key to the future of 3D printing. Convince your customer, show them that 3D printing will make their life a little happier, a little easier, a little more incredible and this industry won’t be able to stop itself.

Fuel 3D: Less than $1000 hand held 3D scanner on Kickstarter! 3 Days to get yours.

Giving a quick shout out to Fuel 3D and their current Kickstarter, which you can find here:
http://kck.st/13ygzkS

According to Fuel3D, their handheld scanner is a point-and-shoot 3D imaging system that captures extremely high resolution mesh and color information of objects.

Their proposal looks promising and I hope it lives up to the hype.

I’ll be testing another 3D scanner from Matterform which you can learn more about here http://bit.ly/Yq6PLu

One of the barriers to entry for 3D printing as a whole is the steep learning curve that is sometimes prevalent with computer aided design (CAD) software and systems. Easy to use, affordable 3D scanners will be one tool in overcoming this. But these too are still price prohibitive. One thing to watch for is software and hardware converging and finding a good middle ground that doesn’t scare people away or when the device appears that cuts out the middle man altogether and truly goes to print without complicated interface. That will be the bridge that will allow the consumer market to grow.

With 3D printing “boring and mundane” should be the goal

There are a multitude of stories about the “big” things 3D printing can or may one day do that inspire the imagination and make futurists and techies like me drool with possibilities. Reproducing body parts for medical procedures, replicating food, printing a gun..etc. But IMHO the real mark of a technology is the innocuous and mundane things that become so common in your life that you can’t imagine how you did without it or can even conceive of a better way. When a particular technology becomes so ingrained into your operations that you take it for granted and only notice it when it isn’t there, is unavailable or not working. This to me will be the real benchmark of 3D printing.

Think of the things in your life right now you take for granted that weren’t even around, or widely used, just a mere 6+ years ago. The iPhone’s debut was only January 2007 and that device and mobile technology in general is now so much part of the fabric of everyday existence that people literally have withdrawal-like symptoms when they can’t use it. Or think of the GPS, does anyone even remember using a Thomas Guide or an atlas anymore? A whole generation of kids would have no clue. Think of even simple desktop publishing and home printing. What used to be held as high skills for professionals are now a pre-requisite for middle-schoolers. And wireless technology, fuggedaboutit. Can you even imagine being tethered landline to a modem ever again if you don’t have to be? No, and one most likely never will be barring calamity or personal choice. This is where the ultimate goal of 3D printing needs to be. The question isn’t how do we make the 3D printer better, easier, faster, cheaper? The question is how do we make the 3D printer so invaluable, so a part of one’s everyday life that you simply and utterly cannot imagine your life again without it? If we focus on that goal and outcome, the questions of better, faster, easier and cheaper will be handled in the journey getting there.

Fifty years from now (hopefully even before then), kids need to be so bored with 3D printing they don’t even know what you’re talking about when you say, “In my day we used to go to a mall or department store to get…”, “Daddy, what’s a ‘mall’?”. And with that end result in mind, is how we should begin and think strategically about the decisions being made now. When the industry is doing that as a whole, then we will be on the road to earning the “game-changing technology” moniker all us dreamers and enthusiasts so lavishly put on the 3D printing world.

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

Winter is Coming: 3D printing patent expirations to change markets

Every February 2nd in America is Groundhog Day. Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous of these marmots, is brought out to divine the upcoming season. If he sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter; and if he doesn’t, then an early spring. This upcoming February 2014, key patents in 3D printing are set to expire and while there is no “Phil” for the 3D Printing industry, there are some good laws of supply and demand that can divine how this will probably play out.

The processes, known as selective laser sintering (SLS), currently is usually available in the most high end printers and vary but will begin to expire this coming February and then thru the remainder of the year. Laser sintering involves melting a fine powder (usually a plastic derivative) in order to bond it with the powder surrounding it that produces a very smooth, detailed and consistent finish. Developed by the University of Texas in the mid-1980s, the big 3D printer manufacturers who now control the laser sintering patents have used patent law to corner the market for devices, and to prevent device-owners from sourcing their powder from other third vendors. The result? Well, it’s always the same when you control the supply and demand is high. Good industrial quality printers can cost more than a car or even a house! Also, with quality 3D printing services and products, what is usually cheap and simple plastic powder can cost more than a good steak by weight! Thus, what should be a cheap, affordable way to produce becomes cost prohibitive and with significant barriers to entry for the market.

With the supply side of the equation set to change as SLS patents expire early next year, the 3D printing industry is going to be in for a massive upheaval in this next decade.

Costs for quality 3D printers should be driven down, and service firms should be able to lessen costs and overhead. A glut of low-cost printers using SLS should start flooding the market, most likely from China. This will attract hobbyists and entrepreneurs of all varieties to 3D printing like the good old internet gold rush days and it will be “mainstream” by 2017. Printing goods and items will be so cheap and so easy, that every child will be doing it from their homes! This is my “early spring” version, unfortunately I think I see my shadow.

Yes, costs will go down for printers. Yes, it should be able to open the market for hobbyists, prosumers and Makers. However, the potential for low quality, low innovation and cornering of the commodities used in the SLS process will be more precarious than ever. Also, it will most likely be the beginning of the end for the wire extrusion method of 3D printing popularly used right now as that technology will become the “dot-matrix” era of 3D printers. Affordable printers made by “other” entities like Dell, HP, Epson, etc. will start to creep into the market. While on the surface, this will seem like a good thing and get printers into many more hands, their model will be selling the printing material like they do now with ink-jet printers (those cartridges barely lasting and often costing more than the printers themselves). This demand will bump up the price of related underlying commodities as a whole and keep production costs on parity. Innovation suffers here in my opinion, and here’s why; people are often lazy. One of the underlying mantras of the Maker community with 3D printers was to eventually make a machine that could essentially make itself. Engineers and geeks across the world use hobby machines that do just that (or nearly) and those machines range in quality and capability across the board. They competed, refined and supported one another. It wasn’t about the result, but often the process and it was their “thing”. With very low cost and affordable printers available, I think this will actually extinguish the flame of innovation or severely stagnate it. People won’t care about the machine, just the resulting fact that it can print a really cool iPhone case. Then, as the mass market gets addicted to their cheap 3D printer, it will become readily apparent that whomever can control the base commodities used in the powder and processes of the print material will have the control. That will most likely drive up those prices and again keep innovation largely under the thumb of those markets.

Of course though, Punxsutawney Phil is often wrong. He’s just a groundhog after all. It may just be, the weather is the weather and we adjust for the better.